Key message: Cotton in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. VSF inventory days down to 21.0 & the average op. is stable at 78%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 149/t (VSF/DWP spread +8% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 1,100/t.
Key message: Cotton and polyester in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. VSF inventory days up to 24.0 & the average op. drops to 69%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 159/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 1,000/t.
Key message: We agree that Suzano’s global hardwood supply/demand outlook appears conservative. Global BHKP demand is expected to grow by a CAGR of 3.4% p.a. (excluding fossil to fibre upside) though to 2026, comprised of 4.7mt from organic growth and new demand of 2mt from fibre to fibre (tissue and ivory board). Over the same period, net capacity growth is set to increase by a CAGR of 3.2% p.a. (excluding higher unplanned downtime as seen during 2017-2021). On this basis, the global hardwood operating rate is expected to improve. Suzano did caution that land and wood shortages are likely to see a limit on new projects that can be announced.
Key message: China pulp prices gain further traction; UWF prices +3% w/w and containerboard prices stable.
Key message: Cotton and polyester in the green, and VSF stable. VSF inventory days up to 21.5 & the average op. drops to 74%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at
-USD 139/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is
now USD 985/t.
Key message: ALL grades in the green, led by China pulp prices, UWF & testliner in Europe. Most containerboard producers have announced an EUR 150/t price increase.
Key message: Cotton and VSF in the green, while polyester moderates. VSF inventory days down to 19.5 & the average op. lowers to 80%. VSF theoretical profit still in the red at
-USD 113/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is stable at USD 975/t, with upside from current levels.
Key message: H1 22A results benefitted from Pharma diversification. Excluding once offs, normalised HEPS would have increased by 19% y/y (H1 22A: flat). Interim DPS was stable at ZAr 17/share.
Key message: Cotton and VSF in the green, while polyester moderates. VSF inventory days now 20 & the average op. is stable at 82%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 115/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 975/t, with upside from current levels.
Key message: Pulp prices and Graphic Paper prices gain further ground, while Packaging remains broadly stable with the exception of OCC (+2% w/w).