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Author: Sean Ungerer

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Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Feb 16, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Chinese pulp prices up 7%, Graphic Paper prices all in the green, and containerboard prices stable.

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Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights

Feb 15, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Textiles in the green. VSF inventory days at 24.5 & average op. at 81%. VSF theoretical profit just in the red at -USD 20/t (VSF/DWP spread +17% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 910/t.

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Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 22A Insights

Feb 11, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Q1 was much stronger than expected, marking the 6th consecutive quarter of improving EBITDA to USD 240mn and
EPS of USD 0.20/share, with gearing reduced further (net debt/EBITDA 2.8x). SAP set to potentially print its record quarterly EBITDA in Q2 22E.

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Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Feb 4, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Pulp prices stable. Graphic Paper in the green and sack kraft market remains tight, with prices now up 45% y/y (EUR 400/t).

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Mondi: European Containerboard Insights

Feb 2, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: With the next wave of European containerboard capacity expected from Q4 22E, 2022 is set to be a stronger year. This coupled with favourable sack kraft dynamics and a further UWF recovery underpins our OVERWEIGHT rating for Mondi.

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Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Jan 27, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Further pulp gains in China. Graphic Paper prices keep marching on with the exception of UWF this week.

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Forestry & Paper: Sappi Q1 22E Insights

Jan 26, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Strong Q1 expected, marking the 6th consecutive quarter of improving EBITDA to USD 192mn and EPS of USD 0.14/share. We expect net debt/EBITDA to decline to 3.2x.

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Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Update

Jan 25, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Cotton, and polyester just in the green. VSF inventory days down again to 14 & average op. rate improves further to 85%. VSF theoretical profit still in the red at -USD 70/t (VSF/DWP spread +11% YTD). Spot DWP remains at USD 905/t.

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Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights

Jan 18, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Pulp prices gain further traction in China, with more increases on the cards. Graphic paper extends gains (but inclusive of energy surcharges).

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Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Insights

Jan 18, 2022Sean UngererForestry and Paper

Key message: Cotton, polyester & VSF all in the green. VSF inventory days down again to 17 & average op. rate improves further to 84%. VSF theoretical profit improved but still in the red at -USD 72/t (VSF/DWP spread +10% YTD). Spot DWP remains at USD 905/t.

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