Forestry & Paper: DS Smith Packaging Insights
Key message: Positive read-though for both Mondi and Smurfit Kappa. DS Smith expects mid-single volume growth and for further price increases to offset cost pressures.
Forestry & Paper: Russian Insights
Key message: We update list of F&P companies ceasing production in Russia. Mondi continues to operate. PEFC declares timber from Russia as “conflicted”, with limited direct impact on Mondi’s CEE operations. Logistics in Russia to tighten across the board (ocean, air, rail and road).
Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Insights
Key message: Most textiles in the green, except cotton. VSF inventory days stable at 19 & the average op. is down to 82%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 100/t (VSF/DWP spread +14% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 960/t, with upside from current levels.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: All grades in the green in February led by Graphic Paper (+10-28% m/m), followed by pulp
(+2-8% m/m) and then packaging (+1-2%).
Forestry & Paper: Mondi Russian Insights
Key message: Some global Forestry & Paper companies with Russian assets either have stopped or intend to stop production on the back of inadequate supplies of critical raw materials.
Forestry & Paper: Mondi FY 21E Insights
Key message: FY 21E results overshadowed by Russia invading Ukraine. Assuming no earnings (and cash extraction) from Russia, this would reduce our FY 22E EPS by 21% to EUR 1.59/share (+10% y/y), with net debt/EBITDA of 1.1x (before the Personal Care Components disposal). Under this scenario, our target price would be reduced by 18% to R 349/share, 13% higher than the CMP.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibres Insights
Key message: Cotton in the red, while Polyester and VSF in the green. VSF inventory days down to 19 & the average op. up to 84%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 58/t (VSF/DWP spread +16% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 925/t, with upside from current levels.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Further gains for pulp prices. CWF prices up 3%. Paper Packaging grades stable, with the exception of OCC, which was up 2%.
Forestry & Paper: Mondi Personal Care Components Disposal
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Forestry & Paper: Textiles Fibre Insights
Key message: Cotton & polyester in the red. VSF inventory days tighten to 20 & average op. edges up to 82%. VSF theoretical profit weakens further to -USD 31/t (VSF/DWP spread +16% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 915/t.