Key message: Cotton, polyester and VSF in the green. VSF inventory days tighten further to 12.5, while the average op. rate is down to 75%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 92/t (VSF/DWP spread +17% YTD). Spot DWP is up 4% today to USD 1,190/t.
Key message: May m/m prices changes: China pulp +4-7%; CWF +9%; UWF +6%; US CFS +8%; Testliner +5%. Norske Skog share price increased the most vs. peers (+13% m/m) in May and is now up 54% YTD. In terms of EV/EBITDA multiples, Sappi and Mondi are both trading at the biggest discounts vs. peers.
Key message: Cotton further in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. Both VSF inventory days (13.0) & average op. rate (78%) stable. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 120/t (VSF/DWP spread +15% YTD). Spot DWP is USD 1,140/t.
Key message: Pulp prices steady, however more increases announced in most regions. Graphic Paper prices stable, while kraftliner extends its gains. The sack kraft market continues to heat up with tighter supply and more price increases announced.
Key message: Cotton and polyester in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. VSF inventory days down to 13.0 & the average op. is stable at 78%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 133/t (VSF/DWP spread +11% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 1,140/t.
Key message: Record quarterly EBITDA. UWF and Pulp sales volumes reduced due to the need to replenish stocks and logistic challenges. NVG continues to expand its packaging offering.
Key message: Pulp and Packaging stable, while Graphic Paper makes further gains.
Key message: Cotton and polyester in the red, while VSF and DWP gain further ground. VSF inventory days down to 15.5 & the average op. is stable at 78%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 140/t (VSF/DWP spread +12% YTD). Spot DWP is now USD 1,135/t.
Key message: Q2 much stronger than expected, with Sappi printing a record quarterly EBITDA of USD 337mn. Given the outlook for H2 22E, significant degearing provides Sappi with the opportunity to improve its capital structure and accordingly should drive a structural re-rating.
Key message: Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Strong Q2 expected, marking the 7th consecutive quarter of improving EBITDA and potentially record EBITDA of USD 273mn (EPS of USD 0.24/share). We expect net debt/EBITDA to decline to 2.3x.