Sappi: Q3 22E Insights
Key message: Strong Q3 expected, despite historically a seasonally weaker quarter. EBITDA to improve by 121% y/y to USD 320mn and EPS of USD 0.33/share. We expect net debt/EBITDA to decline to 1.5x.
Mondi: Insights from recent European peer results
Key message: Results are likely to be stronger than expected. Outlook for H2 is positive for UWF, Containerboard and sack kraft. Balance sheet has significant optionality post the PCC disposal. A special dividend of up to EUR 3/share (16% yield) would still leave significant headroom, in our view.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: European pulp prices place further pressure on Graphic paper producers. US CFS stats for June point to continued strong demand. Testliner prices come under further pressure and various producers confirm downtime due to rising costs. Energy prices in Europe have moderated as Nord stream gas flows resume.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Big moves for pulp in Europe, Graphic Paper in the green, while testliner shows first signs of weakness.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key message: Spot DWP now USD 1,210/t. VSF inventory days stable at 12.0, while the average op. rate drops slightly to 78%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 149/t (VSF/DWP spread +10% YTD).
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Prices for Pulp, Paper and Packaging stable this week. Potential pulp supply shock in Asia, while May global demand was up 5% y/y. Mondi’s Merebank mill has restarted.
Forestry & Paper: DS Smith H2 22A Packaging Insights
Key message: Record corrugated box volume growth. Returns are back in the zone and a bullish outlook for FY 23E.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Pulp prices gain further traction, placing some pressure on Graphic Paper margins. US CFS stats for May point to continued strong demand. Containerboard prices remain stable, while OCC is still rising.
Forestry & Paper: Textile Fibre Insights
Key message: Cotton and polyester in the red, while VSF and DWP prices gain further traction. VSF inventory days tighten further to 12.0, while the average op. rate is down to 74%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at
-USD 128/t (VSF/DWP spread +13% YTD). Spot DP is stable at USD 1,190/t.
Forestry & Paper: Industry Insights
Key message: Pulp prices rise further in all regions. Graphic Paper prices gain further traction, while Packaging prices take a breather. Earnings guidance upgrades from Stora Enso and UPM.