Key message: ICE Cotton contract down 5%, while VSF drops 1%. Cotton is trading at a 4% premium to VSF. Spot DP is stable at USD 1,125/t. VSF inventory days mark first decline in over 10 weeks to 28.0, and the average op. rate improves to 58%. VSF theoretical profit is further in the red at -USD 207/t (VSF/DWP spread -3% YTD). Grim update from Lenzing.
Key message: Cotton +2% w/w, while VSF drops 3%. Cotton is now trading at a 4% premium to VSF. Spot DP is stable at USD 1,125/t. VSF inventory days tick up to 29.0, while the average op. rate is stable at 52%. VSF theoretical profit is further in the red at -USD 199/t (VSF/DWP spread -9% YTD).
Key message: Pulp prices steady. Further gains for Graphic Paper. Testliner comes under further pressure but producers are targeting a price increase of EUR 100-140/t from 1 October.
Key message: DP price -1% m/m & +19% y/y in August, with the July-August average of USD 1,204/t up 8% q/q. Cotton down 6% w/w, while VSF is flat. Cotton is now trading at a 1% discount to VSF. Spot DP is USD 1,125/t. VSF inventory days tick up to 27.5, while the average op. rate declines further to a new low of 52%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 159/t (VSF/DWP spread -3% YTD).
Key message: Pulp, Graphic Paper & Containerboard prices stable. ICC Dutch TTF Gas Futures have moderated to EUR 243/MWH, from a high of EUR 346/MWH on 26 August. A EUR 10/MWH increase in natural gas prices would raise average testliner manufacturing costs by EUR10-20/t and for kraftliner by EUR 5-10/t.
Key message: Cotton up 2%, while VSF is flat. Cotton is now trading at a 5% premium to VSF. Spot DP is USD 1,140/t. VSF inventory days tick up to 26.5, while the average op. rate declines further to a decade low of 55%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 174/t (VSF/DWP spread -2% YTD).
Key message: Pulp prices steady but likely to start falling. Graphic Paper further in the green. Kraftliner plays catch-up to testliner and OCC drops 3%. Dutch TTF gas futures now EUR 240/MWH!
Key message: Cotton jumps 7%, while VSF is down 2%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% premium to VSF. Spot DP stable at USD 1,220/t. VSF inventory days tick up to 23.5, while the average op. rate declines further to 65%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 252/t (VSF/DWP spread -6% YTD).
Key message: Strong Q3 expected, despite historically a seasonally weaker quarter. EBITDA to improve by 121% y/y to USD 320mn and EPS of USD 0.33/share. We expect net debt/EBITDA to decline to 1.5x.
Key message: Results are likely to be stronger than expected. Outlook for H2 is positive for UWF, Containerboard and sack kraft. Balance sheet has significant optionality post the PCC disposal. A special dividend of up to EUR 3/share (16% yield) would still leave significant headroom, in our view.