Key message: Cotton and polyester down 3-5%. Cotton is now trading at a 2% discount to VSF. Spot DP is stable at USD 1,020/t. VSF inventory days down to 27.0, while the average op. rate improves further to 66%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -USD 229/t.
Key message: 1st signs of pulp price weakness, while Graphic Paper prints further gains. Containerboard stable, while OCC remains under the pump and ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at EUR 142/MWH. Trading updates from the likes of Mondi, UPM and Metsä Group point to a strong earnings season ahead.
Cotton and polyester up 3%. Cotton is now trading at a 3% premium to VSF. Spot DP is now USD 1,020/t. VSF inventory days tick up slightly to 28.0, while the average op. rate improves further to 65%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 239/t. Lenzing CMD tomorrow.
Key message: Strong Q3 22A with EBITDA up 55% y/y to EUR 450mn (-7% q/q). We remain OVERWEIGHT with a potential special dividend of ZAR 62/share (23%) being the key ST catalyst.
Key message: Strong Q3 22E expected on the back of strong pricing environment despite significant cost pressures. We expect EBITDA to increase by 74% y/y (+4% q/q). Potential special dividend from planned Russian disposal equates to ZAR 62.64/share (23% yield).
Key message: Graphic Paper prices lead gains in September, while pulp was broadly stable and OCC was down 26% m/m.
Key message: DP price -7% m/m (+11% y/y) in September, with the Q3 22A average of USD 1,175/t down 7% q/q. (+11% y/y). Cotton and VSF were down 3% w/w. Cotton is now trading at a 1% discount to VSF. Spot DP is now USD 1,048/t. VSF inventory days stable at 27.5, while the average op. rate improves further to 61%. VSF theoretical profit further in the red at -USD 231/t.
ey message: Sappi is set to reduce its European Graphic Paper footprint by 38%, mostly impacting Coated Mechanical (CM: -69%) and Uncoated Woodfree (UWF: -100%), with a negligible impact on Coated Woodfree (CWF: -5%). European Packaging & Specialties exposure will also be impacted, with capacity set to decline by 26%. The deal is expected to close in FQ 2 23E for a total EV of EUR 272mn (EV/EBITDA: 4.7x), with the net cash proceeds of EUR 212mn set to reduce net debt further but earmarked for growth projects.
Key message: Europe pulp prices rise further on the back of a stronger USD. CWF and UWF price further in the green. CWF shipments in the red in August but outperform all other grades. Containerboard prices stable, while OCC down a further 8%. Dutch TTF Gas Futures price is now EUR 204/MWH. Sappi’s planned disposals in Europe show us they are not worth nothing!
Key message: Pulp prices stable, for now. August pulp producer stocks increased by 1 day m/m to 43, while shipments were up 8% y/y & 6% m/m. Further gains for Graphic Paper producers in Europe. August US CFS shipments saw first decline since October 2021. OCC prices tumble 13% w/w, while various testliner producers take downtime. Dutch TTF Gas Futures prices is now EUR 187/MWH.