Sean Ungerer – Page 29 – Chronux Research

Forestry & Paper Weekly Insights

Key message: 20% of German media & printing companies could survive 2020, fire at Sappi’s Alfeld mill and OCC jumps 33%.

Key message: Q2 volumes could drop by 40% y/y. Graphic paper downtime of c. 110-120kt in Q2 expected. FY graphic paper pricing could decline by 5-7%.

Key message from our 1/1 call: ST impact on UWF from COVID-19 does not compare to the 2008/2009 GFC.

Key message: Strong demand for export containerboard and OCC cost pressure to continue. Unprecedented demand declines for UWF (30-50%).

Key message: White kraftliner demand healthy and FBB demand stable. Pricing and demand expected to remain stable.

Key message: Europe’s largest UWF producer takes downtime. Sappi to potentially idle Lanaken. Bleak Grasim VSF update. Third week of OCC increases.

Key message: European kraftliner demand up 8.5% and inventories down 30% y/y. Further price increases seem likely.

Key message: A quarter of two tales, record EBIT for Specialty Paper while Paper is under pressure. Strongest balance sheet amongst peers.

Key message: Volumes in the red across the board. Accelerated structural decline, with graphic paper demand expected to drop by 30%.

Key message: Second week in a row that OCC jumps more than 15%. This is supportive of containerboard price increases.