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Author: Rowan Goeller

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Barloworld – Tongaat Hulett Starch Acquisition

Sep 28, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Barloworld lost its MAC (Material Adverse Change) claim and has been forced to honour the original purchase agreement. We look at the impact on Barloworld’s financials.

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Super Group – FY20 Results

Sep 18, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Conservative balance sheet means no Covid-related capital issues, with acquisitions still a strong driver of growth. Offshore operations struggling.

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Motus Holdings – FY20 Results

Sep 18, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: A good result and management positive in outlook. However, Motus is becoming more capital intensive to maintain vehicle sales – this will hurt returns. High rental car exposure in the Import and Distribution division remains a risk, in our opinion.

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Bidvest – FY20 Results

Sep 17, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Still somewhat noisy with non-trading items large (excl. Covid impacts). Large divisions Services and Freight look set for a good FY21.

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KAP Industrial Holdings

Sep 4, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Volatility in polymer margins continues to impact KAP, with average margins declining 15% YoY. We value KAP at what we consider to be the mid-range operating margin of 5% in the Chemical division.

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Cashbuild – FY20 Results

Sep 2, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials, Industrials

Key message: Solid results with strong cash generation notwithstanding the COVID impact. Strong sales growth post YE is providing FY21 with a good start – but pent-up demand levels (and supply disruptions) are distorting the real underlying demand levels.

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Auto Anemometer

Sep 1, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Vehicle sales have stabilised in June, July and August at 30-35% down on 2019 – this looks to be the new normal level for the remainder of the year.

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Sephaku Holdings: Feedback from Management Meeting

Aug 27, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

The cement market has been very strong post-lockdown as blenders and imported volumes have declined.

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Bidcorp FY20 Results

Aug 26, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: The Foodservice market has proved to be resilient and has not faced structural changes due to Covid restrictions. Activity levels are back at 90% of prior periods.

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Imperial Logistics: FY20 Results

Aug 26, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: A shift to a new business model brings risk. An acquisition-led growth strategy in and around Africa is brave – we are concerned the increased complexity and risk is not well understood.

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