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Author: Rowan Goeller

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Bidcorp – Trading Update

Dec 2, 2021Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: 1H HEPS is at record levels in constant currency and ZAR, despite lockdowns still impacting some geographies. Although cost pressure is evident, margin growth is implicit in management guidance.

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Invicta Holdings – 1H FY22 Results

Dec 1, 2021Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Continued strong cashflows have removed all balance sheet concerns. Invicta remains well positioned to grow market share in the mining and industrial sectors.

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PPC – 1H FY22 Results

Nov 25, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: EBITDA margins remain under 20% due to high cost inflation. ITAC tariffs on imported cement and clinker are still likely, in our opinion, and would boost our valuation by over 100c.

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Barloworld – FY21 Results

Nov 23, 2021Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Cash generation continues to exceed expectations through strong balance sheet management. The boost from optimising working capital appears to be at an end, but operational performance should continue to improve earnings and returns. A long-awaited rerating appears to be occurring.

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Cement Import Monitor

Nov 18, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: September imports were high at over 150kt – supply chain issues do not seem to be impacting cement shipments.

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Raubex- 1H FY22 Results

Nov 10, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: With the roads order book relatively full, renewable energy offers Raubex further growth opportunities. The announcement of external funding for Eskom from COP26 should unlock public and private renewable energy spend. This is significant for Raubex as the current valuation requires growth in the order book to approx. R20bn.

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Afrimat – 1H FY22 Results

Nov 5, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: Iron ore prices have retreated significantly, but we still forecast revenue in FY24 to be 2.4 times that in FY21 due to volume growth in existing and new mines.

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Auto Anemometer

Nov 2, 2021Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: YoY comparatives are more meaningful now as comparative months are out of lockdown. We still compare to 2019 numbers though to get a real sense of where the market is.

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Cement Import Monitor

Oct 21, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials, General

Key message: July and August imports have been relatively high given the looting and port issues over the period. Government localisation policies will have minimal impact on imports.

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Calgro M3 – 1H FY22 Results

Oct 18, 2021Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: With the restructuring complete margins and profitability are improving, with a strong 2H expected.

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