Stora Enso’s Q2 20A Insights
Key message: Paper volumes down 34%, with a recovery still uncertain. Europe box prices under pressure and similar read-through from DS Smith results with box volumes down (-12% y/y and -6% q/q).
Grasim (VSF producer): Textile Fibre Insights
Key message from our call with Grasim: ST textile demand recovery remains highly uncertain. Current VSF prices means producers’ margins remain in the red. We maintain that their current DWP requirements could be down as much as 73%.
Sappi Ltd: Capacity rationalisation update
Key message: Europe expected, US clever move to reduce overheads and effectively scale back CFS capacity.
DS Smith: European Packaging Insights
Key message: Negative ST read-through for Paper Packaging Peers. Despite strong e-commerce and FMCG demand, industrial exposure pushes box volumes into the red. However, likely that COVID has accelerated MT structural demand for corrugated.
Grasim (VSF producer): Q4 20A Insights
Key message: VSF expansion postponed and VSF demand pull maybe by Oct-Dec. We estimate that their current DWP requirements could be down as much as 73%.
Forestry & Paper Weekly Insights
Key message: H&M update highlights textile demand pressure continues, albeit the worst appears to be over. Tissue demand could increase pulp demand by > 1.5mt in 2020. OCC prices could now be reversing recent gains as collection rates recover.
Navigator Q1 20A: Europe UWF market leader
Key message: Up to 15% UWF downtime extended till end of June. 2020 UWF demand could drop by 15% y/y.
Forestry & Paper Weekly Insights
Key message: 20% of German media & printing companies could survive 2020, fire at Sappi’s Alfeld mill and OCC jumps 33%.
Verso Q1 20A Insights (North American CFS)
Key message: Q2 volumes could drop by 40% y/y. Graphic paper downtime of c. 110-120kt in Q2 expected. FY graphic paper pricing could decline by 5-7%.
IP Packaging and UWF Insights
Key message from our 1/1 call: ST impact on UWF from COVID-19 does not compare to the 2008/2009 GFC.