Key message: ACT experienced a challenging H1, with normalised diluted HEPS down 10% y/y, although we estimate a decline of only 3% (excluding NH legal costs). Significant increase in receivables explains the increase in gearing and results in dividends being suspended and to be reviewed in June. Sanlam transaction on track to close in CY Q2 23E.
Key message: Mixed moves for pulp prices, while DP gains further traction. Graphic Paper grades stable, while Containerboard prices further in the red. Gas Futures now €44/MWH.
Key message: Mixed moves for Paper pulp, while DP is stable. Graphic paper grades mostly hold steady. Containerboard prices further in the red, while OCC is stable. ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now drop further this week to €50/MWH.
Key message: Paper pulp prices under further pressure, while DP moves the other way, with spot now $900/t. Graphic paper grades mostly hold steady. Containerboard prices further in the red, while OCC has hit a floor. ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now €53/MWH.
SAP’s valuation has dislocated from earnings and normalized earnings and remains undervalued.
Key message: Pulp prices start edging down slowly in Europe. Coated mechanical shows first signs of weakness across Graphic Paper grades. Containerboard prices weaken further, with kraftliner and testliner prices down 3% ytd. OCC manages to just stay above € 70/t and the ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at € 61/MWH (-9% w/w).
Key message: The viscose industry chain is set to benefit in 2023 from the lifting of strict COVID prevention and control measures in December. VSF inventory days drop to 20.5, while the average op. rate drops is now 57%. VSF theoretical profit is now almost at break-even. HW DP price averaged $ 963/t in Q4 22A and $ 908/t in December. Spot DP is now $ 880/t.
Key message: Pulp prices stubbornly stable in Europe, with some pressure in the US and China. Graphic prices stable for now, while containerboard prices in the red across the board. ICE Dutch TTF Gas Futures now trading at EUR 67/MWH.
Key message: LT drivers for pulp demand remain intact. Confirmed projects through to 2025 appear moderate in light of c.1.7mt of pulp capacity exiting the market on an annual basis.
Key message: DP price -8% m/m (+2% y/y) in November, while VSF was down 7% m/m (+4% y/y). Spot DP is now $ 910/t. VSF inventory days tick up further to 28.5, while the average op. rate drops to 63%. VSF theoretical profit improves but still in the red at -$ 139/t.