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Author: Rowan Goeller

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Barloworld – Adjusting for Corona Impact

Mar 31, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: In the absence of certainty, we adjust our numbers to reflect 3-months of lost revenue to test robustness.

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Bidvest – Adjusting for Corona Impact

Mar 30, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: In the absence of certainty, we adjust our numbers to reflect 3-months of lost revenue to test robustness.

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Coronavirus Chronicles – This too shall pass

Mar 17, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials, Diversified Industrials, Packaging

Key message: Unprecedented volatility. Beware companies with too much operational gearing. The Construction Sector emerging as a potential safe haven (how times change!).

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PPC – Can It Pull Through?

Mar 13, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: We examine the ability of PPC to withstand current weak markets and do some scenario analysis around debt covenants. We conclude PPC still has a robust Southern African operation able to withstand even weaker markets before covenants are tested.

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Raubex – Trading Statement for FY20

Mar 10, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: Road work continues to be at very low levels, but recent tenders from SANRAL seem to indicate the potential for a significant boost in a relatively uncompetitive environment.

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Bidvest – 1H FY20 Results

Mar 9, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: A noisy result, but underlying performance flat in a weak market. Growth through acquisition (PHS, Eqstra) and organic (LPG tanks) in FY21 provide some upside potential.

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WBHO – 1H FY20 Results

Mar 5, 2020Rowan GoellerConstruction and Basic Materials

Key message: The challenges of operating a construction company remotely are again apparent. WBHO failed one of the three Golden Rules of Construction – avoid new geographies, new disciplines and only use the A-team. The Infrastructure business (a new discipline) in Australia is proving too challenging and should be reviewed.

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Bidvest – 1H FY20 Results

Mar 2, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: A tough period but through the noise Bidvest traded sideways – not bad in the current economy. Mgmt. are positive about FY21 prospects – organic and acquisitive growth should boost earnings.

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Motus Holdings – 1H FY20 Results

Feb 26, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: Motus is using its balance sheet to support growth – evident in rising inventory utilisation. The draft Right of Repair bill has significant potential implications and creates a risk overhang.

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Imperial Logistics – 1H20 Results

Feb 26, 2020Rowan GoellerDiversified Industrials

Key message: The logistics sector is challenging in all regions – but cost-cutting has helped balance volume and margin pressure.

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